All that hinges on long-term oil prices

It is difficult today to draw up a long-term forecast of oil prices: Demand for oil is going to be reduced by efforts to meet the climate goals and the permanent loss of GDP due to the COVID crisis; Oil supply is going to be reduced by the fall in investment; The strategy pursued by OPEC countries and Russia may vary. If oil prices were to be low in the long term: Producer countries, including the United States, would face a difficult situation; some countries would be in great difficulty ; shale oil would be threatened in the United States; Importing countries (Europe, Japan, India, China, etc.) would have higher growth and lower inflation; A high CO 2 price would be needed to meet the climate goals.