Report
Patrick Artus

All the consequences of interest rates being lower than the growth rate (r<g)

We look at the OECD as a whole. First, we must identify which interest rates have been lower than the growth rate in the recent period (outside recessions of course). Some interest rates may include sufficiently high risk premia to remain higher than the growth rate. In the recent period, but prior to the 2020 recession, interest rates on sovereign bonds, Investment Grade (but not High Yield) corporate bonds and loans to companies and households have all been lower than the growth rate (i.e. interest rates on 94% of debt). What are the consequences of interest rates being lower than the growth rate? Borrower solvency improves spontaneously (debt grows less fast than income); It becomes impossible to calculate the fundamental value (the discounted sum of future income) of financial and real estate assets; It becomes warranted to increase fiscal deficits in order to lift real interest rates and prevent inefficient investments from being made .
Provider
Natixis
Natixis

Based across the world’s leading financial centers, Natixis CIB Research offers an integrated view of the markets. The team provides support to inform Natixis clients’ investment and hedging decisions across all asset classes.

 

Analysts
Patrick Artus

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