An overview of public health measures in the EMU4

We provide in thi s note a short overview of the pub l ic health measures put in place in the EMU4 countries since the summer. As new infections started to surge during Q4 last year, governments sharpened containment measures significantly. At the same time, current measures are more targeted and economically less damaging than during March/April last year – and potentially therefore also less effective in bringing infections down. One noteworthy difference between the current measures and the measures taken during the first wave is the absence of any border closures this time. This has led supply-chains to operate mor e-or-less smoothly and is one reason why the manufacturing sector is so far hardly affected by the current containment measures. The situation remains difficult in Europe. New infections are coming down in most countries but are rising again in others. The spreading of new mutations of the virus complicate s the picture further. Our base case remains that measures will be softened again by the end of Q1, also because governments will make progress in vaccinating those populations segments that are most at risk. But until we have reached this point , additional measures might be needed, implying additional downside risks to the economic outlook.