April Consumer Price Index Preview

We estimate that headline CPI rose 0. 25 % m/m (prev. - 0. 05 %) in April on a seasonally adjusted basis and that core CPI rose 0.2 6 % m/m (prev. 0. 06 %). From a year-on-year view, we forecast headline CPI slowing, rising 2. 36 % y/y (prev. 2. 39 %), and core CPI rising 2.80 % y/y (prev. 2. 79 %). While we forecast slightly below consensus price growth in April due to declines in seasonally adjusted airfares, lodging, and vehicle prices, we do expect to see the first tariff impacts in the data, namely from the February 4th China tariffs, which should show in elevated recreational goods, sporting goods, and apparel prices.