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Are any monetary aggregates reliable leading indicators of growth?
In the United States and the euro zone, can a monetary aggregate (M1: banknotes and sight deposits; M2: b anknotes and all deposits; credit) be used as a leading indicator of growth or of cyclical turnarounds ? We find that: No monetary aggregate is a leading indicator of growth in the United States; M1 is a reliable leading indicator of growth in the euro zone, with a lead of four quarters. The slowdown in M1 since 2017 therefore heralds a slowdown in growth in the euro zone.
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Natixis
Based across the world’s leading financial centers, Natixis CIB Research offers an integrated view of the markets. The team provides support to inform Natixis clients’ investment and hedging decisions across all asset classes.
Patrick Artus
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