Report
Patrick Artus

Are commodity prices related to global liquidity?

It is often claimed that the present inflation is a consequence of the overly expansionary monetary and fiscal policies conducted during the 2010s. This is hard to believe for fiscal policies, since the global total savings rate rose significantly during the 2010s. But might the very rapid growth in global liquidity created by central banks have finally led to inflation, as the usual monetary theory suggests? Since inflation initially came from rising commodity prices, there would have to be a link, for this theory to be correct, between the liquidity created by central banks (the global monetary base) and commodity prices. Statistical analysis shows that since 1995, it is very unlikely that the increase in monetary bases (money supply) is the cause of the rise in commodity prices. For example, the fall in commodity prices between 2014 and 2019 took place at a time when the (global or OECD) money supply grew rapidly.
Provider
Natixis
Natixis

Based across the world’s leading financial centers, Natixis CIB Research offers an integrated view of the markets. The team provides support to inform Natixis clients’ investment and hedging decisions across all asset classes.

 

Analysts
Patrick Artus

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