Report

Are euro-zone countries' current account surpluses or deficits worrying?

We look at the situations of Germany, France, Spain, Italy and the euro zone as a whole. We start from the observation that a current account deficit can be worrying if it reflects a shortfall in savings and not an investment effort; that a current account surplus can be worrying if it results from a very high level of savings invested in the rest of the world (lent to the rest of the world) with a situation of underinvestment in the country. Since 2010, we have seen that: In Germany, there is excess savings linked to the very high level of total savings and household savings, and which are not lent to other euro-zone countries; In France, there is a current account deficit, despite a high savings rate, due to a sharp rise in the investment rate (total and corporate); In Spain, there has been a current account surplus since 2012 linked to the fall in total and corporate investment; In Italy, the external surplus that had been present since 2012 has disappeared since 2021 due to the sharp increase in corporate investment; In the euro zone as a whole, the external surplus that had been emerging since 2012 has disappeared since the start of 2022, due to the sharp increase in total and corporate investment. All in all, the current account balances of France, Italy and the euro zone as a whole are not worrying, while those of Germany and Spain are a cause for concern.
Provider
Natixis
Natixis

Based across the world’s leading financial centers, Natixis CIB Research offers an integrated view of the markets. The team provides support to inform Natixis clients’ investment and hedging decisions across all asset classes.

 

Other Reports from Natixis

ResearchPool Subscriptions

Get the most out of your insights

Get in touch