Report
Patrick Artus

Are fiscal rules necessary in a currency area?

Are fiscal rules inevitable in a currency area, or can a currency area get by without them? When the euro was created, it was thought that fiscal rules were needed , because if a country had an excessive fiscal deficit, the currency area’s common interest rate would rise. But it is now known that fiscal deficits do not give rise to this negative externality; One might think on the contrary that there is market discipline: if a country has an excessive fiscal deficit, its sovereign risk premium rises, which encourages it to correct its fiscal deficit. Market discipline would thus absolve the need for fiscal rules; But the problem is that if the country does not react to market discipline, or if it reacts too late, it ends up engulfed in a public debt crisis, especially if the market discipline acts late and drastically, forcing the other countries of the currency area to bail it out. So fiscal deficits do have a negative externality if they are highly excessive and if market discipline is insufficient to get the country to correct them , or if it acts too late and drastic ally . We see that fiscal rules are needed in a currency area simply to avoid crisis situations, and not just excessive fiscal deficits, which are corrected by market discipline.
Provider
Natixis
Natixis

Based across the world’s leading financial centers, Natixis CIB Research offers an integrated view of the markets. The team provides support to inform Natixis clients’ investment and hedging decisions across all asset classes.

 

Analysts
Patrick Artus

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