Are the arguments of central banks that reject "leaning against the wind" valid?
Central banks reject "leaning against the wind", i.e. a monetary policy that becomes restrictive during expansion periods to prevent asset price bubbles and excessive debt, even if there is no inflation risk. The central banks ’ arguments are well known: A more restrictive monetary policy during expansion periods would only barely reduce de bt ratios, asset prices and, therefore, the risk of a financial crisis; If leaning against the wind was implemented, the economy would be weakened, and it would be less resilient to a financial crisis or a recession. Central banks clearly still adhere to this theory nowadays, given the very expansionary monetary policy conducted in OECD countries at a time when asset prices are rapidly rising again. Yet, we believe crises in the past showed the dangerous nature of this theory.