Report
Patrick Artus

Are the arguments of central banks that reject "leaning against the wind" valid?

Central banks reject "leaning against the wind", i.e. a monetary policy that becomes restrictive during expansion periods to prevent asset price bubbles and excessive debt, even if there is no inflation risk. The central banks ’ arguments are well known: A more restrictive monetary policy during expansion periods would only barely reduce de bt ratios, asset prices and, therefore, the risk of a financial crisis; If leaning against the wind was implemented, the economy would be weakened, and it would be less resilient to a financial crisis or a recession. Central banks clearly still adhere to this theory nowadays, given the very expansionary monetary policy conducted in OECD countries at a time when asset prices are rapidly rising again. Yet, we believe crises in the past showed the dangerous nature of this theory.
Provider
Natixis
Natixis

Based across the world’s leading financial centers, Natixis CIB Research offers an integrated view of the markets. The team provides support to inform Natixis clients’ investment and hedging decisions across all asset classes.

 

Analysts
Patrick Artus

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