Report
Patrick Artus

Are the financial markets’ expectations for the euro yield curve credible?

We begin with 3-month Euribor contracts and forward interest rates on 10-year German government bonds. They show that the financial markets expect: For end-2019: a 3-month interest rate that is still negative and a German 10-year interest rate of 40 basis points; For end-2020: a 3-month interest rate that is more or less zero and a German 10-year interest rate of around 60 basis points. Are these yield curve expectations reasonable? Regarding expectations of the ECB’s monetary policy, they are extreme: a small increase in key interest rates in 2020 is more likely than no increase at all; Regarding the term premium (the slope of the yield curve), its stability at a low level is consistent with the low and stable variability of the long-term interest rate.
Provider
Natixis
Natixis

Based across the world’s leading financial centers, Natixis CIB Research offers an integrated view of the markets. The team provides support to inform Natixis clients’ investment and hedging decisions across all asset classes.

 

Analysts
Patrick Artus

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