Are the financial markets’ expectations for the euro yield curve credible?
We begin with 3-month Euribor contracts and forward interest rates on 10-year German government bonds. They show that the financial markets expect: For end-2019: a 3-month interest rate that is still negative and a German 10-year interest rate of 40 basis points; For end-2020: a 3-month interest rate that is more or less zero and a German 10-year interest rate of around 60 basis points. Are these yield curve expectations reasonable? Regarding expectations of the ECB’s monetary policy, they are extreme: a small increase in key interest rates in 2020 is more likely than no increase at all; Regarding the term premium (the slope of the yield curve), its stability at a low level is consistent with the low and stable variability of the long-term interest rate.