Report
Are the Germans rational?
Given the population ageing and the high level of per capita capital and income, it is not surprising that Germany has a savings surplus (an external surplus). What is abnormal is that, despite the lack of currency risk, Germany's external (savings) surplus is not being lent to the other euro-zone countries, but rather to the rest of the world. If it was lent to the other euro-zone countries, they could not complain about Germany's external surplus, on the contrary. It is on this point that the question of the Germans ’ rationality arises: is the fact that they refuse to lend their savings to the other euro-zone countries rational or not? Do the other euro-zone countries actually lack profitable investment projects, or do they actually have a solvency problem? It seems to us that the Germans’ stance now has become irrational, although it was rational ten years ago.
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Natixis
Based across the world’s leading financial centers, Natixis CIB Research offers an integrated view of the markets. The team provides support to inform Natixis clients’ investment and hedging decisions across all asset classes.
Patrick Artus
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