Report
Patrick Artus

As long as the decline in unit labour costs prevents a lasting rise in inflation, the “market scenario” may hold

The “financial market scenario” is as follows: Inflation is not permanently high, which keeps long-term interest rates low; Corporate profitability is high and growth prospects are good, which drives up share prices further, especially as long-term interest rates remain low. This scenario can hold as long as wages rise little and unit labour costs fall, since: Inflation is indeed not permanently high and long-term interest rates remain low; Low labour costs boost corporate earnings; Low long-term interest rates make it possible to maintain expansionary fiscal policies that boost growth. Believing in the financial market scenario therefore means believing that wage s will not accelerate and that unit labour costs will remain low for a long time .
Provider
Natixis
Natixis

Based across the world’s leading financial centers, Natixis CIB Research offers an integrated view of the markets. The team provides support to inform Natixis clients’ investment and hedging decisions across all asset classes.

 

Analysts
Patrick Artus

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