Assessing the impact of a Joe Biden victory on commodities

A second term for President Trump would mean a continuation of his current policies. But w hat would a Biden victory mean and what is at stake if the Democrats win both houses? Yesterday we publish ed a full report titled: US elections, what is at stake? which reviews the impact of a Biden victory on markets. This report is an excerpt of the commodities section. Oil A Biden Presidency is seen exerting downside pressure on oil prices, primarily through a more accommodative foreign policy regarding Iran. Our expectation would be to see relatively higher US oil prices compared to international benchmarks , (with WTI potentially premium to Brent, reflecting greater restrictions on production domestically which will increase the marginal production cost) , in a regime of lower than currently forecast oil prices as Iranian barrels return to the market . Metals Biden ’s $2tn plan infrastructure and renewables plan is heavy on metals, but in many instances the US is already on its way to achieve many of the promises. In th is report , we attempt to measure the impact of the offshore wind, electric car and railway policies on metals demand .