At what level will central bank interest rates come down again?

From the 1990s until 2010, the Federal Reserve and the ECB conducted a countercyclical monetary policy that fought inflation when it appeared: in the United States, the Fed funds rate varied between 8% in 1990, 6.5% in 200 0 -200 1 , 5.25% from 2006 to 2008 in periods of rising inflation, and 3% in 1992-1993, 1% in 2003-2004, and 0% from 2009 in years of recession and low inflation. In the euro zone, the euro repo rate was raised to 8.25% in 1993, to 4.75% in 2001-2002, and to 4% in 2007 - 2008 in periods of inflation; it was lowered to 2% from 2003 to 2005, and gradually to 0% from 2009 to 2014 in periods of low inflation. Between 2009 and 2021, the Fed funds rate remained extremely low (peaking at 2.25% in 2019), as did the euro repo rate (0%). Monetary policy became structurally expansionary from 2009, and this lasted until 2021. We believe that once the inflation peak of 2022-2023 is over, the two central banks will return to a countercyclical monetary policy of the type they pursued from 1990 to 2009: high interest rates when inflation appears, low interest rates when inflation has disappeared. This is because average inflation, which was below 2% from 2012 , will return to higher values, requiring a monetary policy response for a variety of reasons: higher energy prices, inflation resulting from the energy transition, reshoring, and greater pressure on the labour market. This will also result in higher volatility in long-term interest rates and financial asset prices.