Report
Patrick Artus

At what point can investors invest in risk-free bonds in the euro zone again?

Given that the ECB will have to limit inflation to 2% in 2024, short-term and long-term interest rates on risk-free bonds in euros will rise more than financial markets currently expect. It is worth noting that given the ECB's commitment to stabilise yield spreads between euro-zone countries, the peripheral euro-zone countries' sovereign bonds have also become risk-free. At what point can investors buy risk-free euro-zone debt? Two conditions must be met: The ECB's interest rate expectations are no longer being revised upwards and have stabilised at a level consistent with the determination to bring inflation back to 2%; Real long-term interest rates have once again become attractive, i.e. close to potential growth in the euro zone (1.3% per year).
Provider
Natixis
Natixis

Based across the world’s leading financial centers, Natixis CIB Research offers an integrated view of the markets. The team provides support to inform Natixis clients’ investment and hedging decisions across all asset classes.

 

Analysts
Patrick Artus

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