At what point can investors invest in risk-free bonds in the euro zone again?
Given that the ECB will have to limit inflation to 2% in 2024, short-term and long-term interest rates on risk-free bonds in euros will rise more than financial markets currently expect. It is worth noting that given the ECB's commitment to stabilise yield spreads between euro-zone countries, the peripheral euro-zone countries' sovereign bonds have also become risk-free. At what point can investors buy risk-free euro-zone debt? Two conditions must be met: The ECB's interest rate expectations are no longer being revised upwards and have stabilised at a level consistent with the determination to bring inflation back to 2%; Real long-term interest rates have once again become attractive, i.e. close to potential growth in the euro zone (1.3% per year).