Brexit without agreement: What cost? An approach based on foreign trade and direct investment

European governments , the European Commission and companies are starting to consider the possibility of a Brexit without an agreement, i.e. a UK exit from the European Union without any free trade agreement , total or partial. We assess the effects of a Brexit without agreement based on external trade and direct investment figures: to what extent has UK membership in the European Union increased UK exports to the European Union and EU exports to the United Kingdom ; UK direct investments in the European Union and EU direct investments in the United Kingdom ? A Brexit without an agreement would reduce UK exports by 30% and EU-27 exports by 3 %; it would make 30% of the total stock of UK foreign direct investment and 9% of EU-27 foreign direct investment unusable .