BTCUSD: real rebound or bull trap?

Macroeconomic environment Canada: wholesale prices rose by 1.2% mom in May (consensus: +0.7%). US: Chicago Fed National Activity Index came in above expectations at 0.43 (consensus: 0.25). Existing home sales disappointing at 5.38 million (consensus: 5.44 million), the prior month estimate having been revised downwards. Eurozone: consumer confidence continued to claw back ground at -0.6 (consensus: -0.7). Equities Equity markets consolidated on Monday against the backdrop of renewed concerns over growth. In Europe, the FTSE MIB underperformed, followed by the CAC, whereas the DAX and IBEX outperformed. At sector level, the banking and telecom sectors outperformed, while the tech and consumer goods sectors brought up the rear. The VIX held around 13%. Bond markets / Derivatives Eurozone sovereigns were swept away by the volatility surrounding Japanese GB, notably core sovereigns, with numerous carry trades being squared. Outperformance by Spanish and Greek sovereigns (Greece’s sovereign rating having recently been upgraded by S&P). Against swap, long papers outperformed, due notably to the primary (tap of OLO 2066). In thin volumes, implied volatilities appreciated slightly, notably for long tenors. In the US, the 10-year and 30-year rates kicked off the week on the rise, gaining 5bp and 6bp, respectively, to set 1-month highs, the Federal Reserve still being susceptible of raising the Fed Funds rate this year despite Donald Trump’s criticism. The yield for the 2-year TNote put on around 2bp, leading to a steepening of the 10Y-2Y segment. Money markets / Central banks Short rates: the US 3-month Libor-OIS spread extended its decline to 35.3bp, in contrast to the 3-month TED spread that continued to recover, passing above 37bp. The SOFR fixed 2bp lower at 1.88%. The Euribor contracts and the Dec 19 Eurodollar contract headed lower on Monday, whereas the EDZ8 and ERZ8 inched higher. FX The greenback firmed on Monday on the back of the rise in the US 10-year interest rate to a 1-month high of 2.90%. The EUR/USD inched lower, back to 1.17, while the GBP/USD stabilised pending the publication on Tuesday of a document detailing the Chequers plan. The Australian and New Zealand dollars recorded the sharpest declines against the US dollar in reaction to the weaker commodity prices. Commodities Oil advanced today as a tweeted threat from Trump to Iran's Rouhani provided fresh impetus to geopolitical fears .