Report
Patrick Artus

Can a debt crisis be averted?

Debt ratios (public and private) are very high both globally and in OECD countries. How can this situation be prevented from leading to a nother financial crisis? Two solutions seem off the cards at present: an across-the-board debt restructuring; resurgent inflation without an increase in nominal interest rates; Debt ratios could be reduced by a significant savings effort. This can be observed at present in the case of private debt everywhere in the OECD except France and public debt only in Germany. The widespread application of this strategy would weaken global demand considerably; The only remaining possibility is to keep interest rates significantly below growth rates for a very long period of time (i.e. institute a lasting tax on lenders). First, this would depend on inflation not returning and on large asset price bubbles not inflating, which would drive up real interest rates. It would also require borrowers to use this configuration to deleverage and not to borrow more. We note that many debt ratios continue to rise: private debt in France and emerging countries; public debt in France, the United States, Japan and emerging countries. This shows that the low interest rates relative to growth are not being used to reduce debt.
Provider
Natixis
Natixis

Based across the world’s leading financial centers, Natixis CIB Research offers an integrated view of the markets. The team provides support to inform Natixis clients’ investment and hedging decisions across all asset classes.

 

Analysts
Patrick Artus

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