Can a rapid downturn in inflation be ruled out?

We look at the situations of the United States and the euro zone, where inflation is now rather expected to decline slowly. But should the scenario of a rapid fall in inflation be discarded? The following mechanisms would point to a rapid fall in inflation: A stabilisation of commodity prices or even a fall in these prices if demand shifted back from goods to services and geopolitical risk disappeared , in addition to the significant investment effort in capacity (semiconductors for example). Given the war in Ukraine, this development is unlikely in the short term; The slowdown in domestic demand due to the fall in real wages and fiscal deficit reduction. This is happening, with inflation bolstered by the rise in energy prices; A positive effect on productivity from economic digitalisation; A gradual upturn in the labour supply. But inflation is unlikely to subside rapidly until geopolitical risk subsides.