Can capital outflows from emerging countries be predicted?

When capital flows out of emerging countries , as was the case from 2013 to 2016 , their economic situation deteriorates sharply , since capital outflows lead to a depreciation of the exchange rate, a deterioration in the terms of trade , inflation and an increase in interest rates. It would therefore be useful to know what drives capital outflows from emerging countries. At first sight, they could be triggered by : A rise in risk aversion; A rise in dollar interest rates; A fall in the growth outlook in emerging countries. An empirical analysis confirms that: Dollar inter e st rates and the growth outlook play a small role; The level of risk aversion plays a large role.