Report
Patrick Artus

Can central banks decide to not react if inflation returns?

Normally, if inflation returns, central banks must increase nominal interest rates sharply since real interest rates must rise in order to curb the inflation. Given the high debt ratios (we look at the United States and the euro zone) , a rise in real interest rates would lead to a borrower solvency crisis. So could the Federal Reserve and the ECB decide to not react to a rise in inflation in order to keep long-term interest rates down and possibly even drive real long-term interest rates lower in the event inflation rose? We believe this is unlikely: First, in the event of a rise in inflation, a fall in real interest rates without a rise in nominal interest rates would lead to even worse financial imbalances than today; Second, central banks’ mandates require them to react to inflation .
Provider
Natixis
Natixis

Based across the world’s leading financial centers, Natixis CIB Research offers an integrated view of the markets. The team provides support to inform Natixis clients’ investment and hedging decisions across all asset classes.

 

Analysts
Patrick Artus

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