Can European countries avoid the irreversibilities created by the COVID crisis?
Repeated episodes of lockdown in Europe would spontaneously give rise to dangerous irreversibilities : corporate bankruptcies, destruction of jobs and human capital. These irreversibilities lead to a permanent loss of GDP and income levels. To avoid these irreversibilities , euro-zone countries intervene by using massive fiscal deficits with transfer payments to companies and households; in the short term, this definitely reduces the irreversibility described above. But what happens later? Fiscal deficits are completely monetised, and the future cost of this policy is therefore the cost of excess money creation, which, as we know, is a tax on buyers of: Goods and services if goods and services prices rise; Assets (equities, housing) if asset prices rise. The policy conducted remains positive if this tax reduces activity in the future, but is sufficiently spread over time to prevent the irreversibilities avoided in the short term from reappearing in the future.