Report
Patrick Artus

Can expansionary monetary policies prevent debt crises and multiple equilibria?

The risk of self-fulfilling debt crises is well known: if lenders expect that a borrower is likely to default, the ensuing rise in interest rates actually makes a debt crisis likely (leads to a high default probability). So it always possible to “jump” from an equilibrium with a low default (debt crisis) probability to an equilibrium with a high default probability. But if monetary policy leads to low risk-free interest rates, the equilibrium with a high default (debt crisis) probability disappears: a highly expansionary monetary policy has the virtue of eliminating the multiple equilibria that can give rise to self-fulfilling debt crises.
Provider
Natixis
Natixis

Based across the world’s leading financial centers, Natixis CIB Research offers an integrated view of the markets. The team provides support to inform Natixis clients’ investment and hedging decisions across all asset classes.

 

Analysts
Patrick Artus

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