Can governments absorb an inflation shock caused by commodity prices?
The war in Ukraine will reinforce the situation that emerged after the COVID crisis: high prices for energy, metals and agricultural commodities. The question for governments in European countries is: should and can government budgets absorb this shock, to ensure that it does not affect households and companies? The answer is probably yes if: The shock is not permanent; Central banks keep interest rates low despite the inflation; Government intervention does not eliminate the price signal that comes from rising commodity prices and reduces demand for these commodities.