Can the Federal Reserve be the only central bank to normalise its monetary policy?
The ECB is not planning to start raising its interest rates before the third quarter of 2019, the Bank of Japan maintains its long-term interest rate target of virtually zero, and the Bank of England is conveying the message that after it hiked its rates in July 2018, they may remain at the same level for a long time. The Federal Reserve, on the contrary, has announced a complete normalisation of its interest rates. Is this possible if it is the only central bank to do so? The risk is obviously that the dollar may appreciate, but it is crucial to bear in mind that US fiscal policy and the external deficit it will lead to should lead to a depreciation of the dollar, which makes it possible to hike rates only in the United States.