Report
Patrick Artus

Can the lack of savings in the United States and the United Kingdom and the excess savings in the euro zone be seen in the level of real long-term interest rates?

Current account balances show that there is a shortage of savings in the United States and the United Kingdom, and an excess of savings in the euro zone. Do these different positions in the savings-investment equilibrium explain the changes in real long-term interest rates country by country (for example, an increase in excess savings leading to a fall in real long-term interest rates) or the relative levels of real interest rates in the different countries? We see that: I n the United States and the euro zone, but not in the United Kingdom , t he real 10-year interest rate was negatively correlated with the current account balance from 2002 to 2023; The country with a current account deficit (United States) has a higher real interest rate on average than the country with a current account surplus (euro zone).
Provider
Natixis
Natixis

Based across the world’s leading financial centers, Natixis CIB Research offers an integrated view of the markets. The team provides support to inform Natixis clients’ investment and hedging decisions across all asset classes.

 

Analysts
Patrick Artus

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