Can the likely inflationary shock be used to reduce debt ratios, and will the inflation tax return?
The new health standards linked to the coronavirus epidemic will most likely lead to a sharp rise in inflation in euro-zone countries. Such a rise is very dangerous: it will reduce household purchasing power and push up long-term interest rates. The only way to make positive use of this rise in inflation would be for the ECB to keep nominal interest rates very low in the short and long term. As a result, the very negative real interest rates and the return of the inflation tax would reduce private and public sector debt ratios. The risk would be that, on the contrary, the ECB would be forced to respond to inflation with more restrictive monetary policies.