Report
Patrick Artus

Can the return to fiscal solvency be made painless?

To be sure, the COVID crisis has jeopardised the fiscal solvency of OECD countries, due to the very sharp increase in their fiscal deficits and public debt ratios. How will their fiscal solvency be restored? Rapid fiscal deficit reduction, like in the euro zone after the subprime crisis, is not expected at present, given the risk of slipping back into recession, especially should the tax burden be hiked ; Definitive, irreversible central bank monetisation of fiscal deficits is a serious possibility; An other serious possibility is public investments that produce higher returns than long-term interest rates. What is certain is that the characteristics of existing bonds must not be modified (explicit cancellation of the bonds held by central banks or maturity extension s , as is sometimes proposed ), as this would amount to a restructuring or a default, which would spark panic in financial markets.
Provider
Natixis
Natixis

Based across the world’s leading financial centers, Natixis CIB Research offers an integrated view of the markets. The team provides support to inform Natixis clients’ investment and hedging decisions across all asset classes.

 

Analysts
Patrick Artus

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