Report
Patrick Artus

Can the roles of monetary and fiscal policy really be reversed in a “war economy”?

In a “war economy” (such as that set in motion by COVID, the war in Ukraine and, in the long term, by the energy transition), monetary policy is used to facilitate the financing of public spending, not to combat inflation. Fiscal policy may then be used to combat inflation, not by reducing public spending - since the aim is to finance high public spending at low interest rates - but by increasing the tax burden. The roles of monetary policy and fiscal policy are therefore reversed: monetary policy enables the financing of public spending; tax policy stabilises prices. Is this reversal possible? An increase in taxes has a restrictive effect on domestic demand that is at least as powerful as an increase in interest rates: fiscal policy can indeed combat inflation; But keeping interest rates low can lead to unsustainable asset price rises; and This policy may be difficult to conduct politically, as households would be hit by both tax hikes (to combat inflation) and the taxation of their savings by low interest rates.
Provider
Natixis
Natixis

Based across the world’s leading financial centers, Natixis CIB Research offers an integrated view of the markets. The team provides support to inform Natixis clients’ investment and hedging decisions across all asset classes.

 

Analysts
Patrick Artus

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