Report
Patrick Artus

Can US growth be stopped from falling below potential growth?

Many investors are worried that the US economy could begin to slow in the second half of 2019. This raises an important question: can US growth be stopped from falling below potential growth (which has actually become quite high due to the upturn in productivity gains)? Monetary policy and fiscal policy are highly expansionary in the United States; real wages and employment are growing and corporate profitability is high: all this should bolster demand and activity. So what are the risks? A negative wealth effect caused by falling share prices? No; A slowdown in global trade and in exports? Yes; A loss of confidence due to geopolitical tensions and the trade war? No. Altogether, the s e risks are unlikely to cancel out the strong demand stimulus.
Provider
Natixis
Natixis

Based across the world’s leading financial centers, Natixis CIB Research offers an integrated view of the markets. The team provides support to inform Natixis clients’ investment and hedging decisions across all asset classes.

 

Analysts
Patrick Artus

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