Report
Patrick Artus

Can we be certain that there is a need to limit fiscal deficits in the euro zone?

Euro -zone countries must keep their fiscal deficit below 3% of GDP and have undertaken to reduce it to 0.5% of GDP in a few years. But is there a basis for these budgetary rules in the euro zone? The euro zone as a whole has an external surplus, and therefore excess savings and, accordingly, does not have to increase its public savings; One of the usual explanations for the euro zone’s budgetary rule is that fiscal deficits exert a negative externality on the other countries: it is argued that if a country has a large external deficit, this lead s to a rise in the euro zone’s common interest rate, which is negative for the other countries. But this explanation is not correct: if a country has a large external deficit, it is this country’s sovereign risk premium that rises, not the euro zone’s common risk-free interest rate; On the contrary, a large fiscal deficit in a country generates a positive externality on the other countries by stimulating its imports from the other countries, and therefore these other countries’ exports. The limit to fiscal deficits in euro-zone countries is perhaps only due to the fact that a country’s fiscal deficits must not be so high that they lead to a public debt crisis in the country, since the other countries then have to bail it out. But we are then talking about a higher limit than the one usually mentioned.
Provider
Natixis
Natixis

Based across the world’s leading financial centers, Natixis CIB Research offers an integrated view of the markets. The team provides support to inform Natixis clients’ investment and hedging decisions across all asset classes.

 

Analysts
Patrick Artus

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