Report
Patrick Artus

Can we expect "Ricardian neutrality"?

In order to meet its budgetary commitments to Europe, the French government wants to markedly reduce (by at least three percentage points) the weight of public spending in GDP by 2022. The question of negative effects of government spending cuts on activity will therefore arise in a central manner in France. Can we then expect "Ricardian neutrality", i.e. a falling household savings rate and increasing corporate investment as a reaction to the government spending cuts? We first look at actual developments in the past in the major OECD countries, and we then seek to determine whether a certain type of government spending cuts can give rise to Ricardian neutrality. All things considered, should we be concerned about the effect of government spending cuts in France? In six out of ten OECD countries, there seems to have been Ricardian neutrality in the past; An increase in the retirement age and privatisation of certain public services can also make it possible to reduce public spending without significantly affecting activity. It is perhaps possible to expect Ricardian neutrality in France.
Provider
Natixis
Natixis

Based across the world’s leading financial centers, Natixis CIB Research offers an integrated view of the markets. The team provides support to inform Natixis clients’ investment and hedging decisions across all asset classes.

 

Analysts
Patrick Artus

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