Report
Patrick Artus

Can we imagine a slowdown in growth in the United States and the euro zone without a negative impact on companies?

As a result of the return of unemployment towards structural unemployment, the increase in uncertainty and protectionism and the rise in inflation, it is very likely that growth will slow down in the United States and the euro zone. Could there be such a slowdown in growth without a negative impact on companies, whose financial situation is currently very good, and therefore without negatively affect ing equity and credit markets (corporate bonds)? This could only happen: If companies are able to react to the decline in growth by very rapidly reducing their employment, to avoid a decline in productivity; Or if real wages slow down as much as labour productivity, if it is affected by the loss of growth. Recent developments in the United States and the euro zone show that: The adjustment of employment to GDP is far more significant in the United States than in the euro zone; The adjustment of real wages to productivity is weak in both countries/regions. Companies would therefore be affected by a slowdown in growth, especially in Europe.
Provider
Natixis
Natixis

Based across the world’s leading financial centers, Natixis CIB Research offers an integrated view of the markets. The team provides support to inform Natixis clients’ investment and hedging decisions across all asset classes.

 

Analysts
Patrick Artus

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