Can we interpret surges in gold prices?
We look at periods when gold prices have risen significantly: can we explain the rise in gold prices from 1973 to 1975, from 1978 to 1981, in 1987-88, from 2002 to 2012 with a fall in 2008, and since 2019? The usual explanations for a rise in gold prices are: Inflation expectations; A depreciation of the dollar; High risk aversion, triggering sales of equities; Rapid growth in money creation and a loss of confidence in money, in the United States or in the OECD as a whole. The following explanations are valid: Inflation expectations in 1973-75 and 1978-81; A depreciation of the dollar in 1973-75, 1978-81, 1987-88, 2002-2012 and 2020; High risk aversion and a resulting fall in share prices in 1987-88, 2009 to 2012 and 2020; Money creation in the United States and the OECD in 2009-2012 and 2019-2020.