Can zero interest rates lead to deflation?
Despite the zero interest rates in the euro zone , growth is weakening, inflation remains low and expected inflation is falling. Are there mechanisms via which interest rates could lead to deflation, i.e. a significant fall in demand leading to abnormally low inflation? We see two such mechanisms: Very low interest rates lead to low expected inflation (this is the “neo-Fisherian†mechanism), which drives down inflation and leads consumers to delay their purchases; Very low interest rates lead to a significant rise in the household savings rate, as the income effect (households want to maintain their savings income despite the low interest rates) outweighs the substitution effect.