Report
Patrick Artus

Can zero interest rates lead to deflation?

Despite the zero interest rates in the euro zone , growth is weakening, inflation remains low and expected inflation is falling. Are there mechanisms via which interest rates could lead to deflation, i.e. a significant fall in demand leading to abnormally low inflation? We see two such mechanisms: Very low interest rates lead to low expected inflation (this is the “neo-Fisherian” mechanism), which drives down inflation and leads consumers to delay their purchases; Very low interest rates lead to a significant rise in the household savings rate, as the income effect (households want to maintain their savings income despite the low interest rates) outweighs the substitution effect.
Provider
Natixis
Natixis

Based across the world’s leading financial centers, Natixis CIB Research offers an integrated view of the markets. The team provides support to inform Natixis clients’ investment and hedging decisions across all asset classes.

 

Analysts
Patrick Artus

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