CEE-3 POLITICS: AMIDST POPULISM AND GROWING EUROSKEPTISM, WHAT LIES AHEAD FOR THE EU?

While t h e Franco-German tandem is set to embrace major domestic political readjustments in 2022 - with Germany turning the page o n the Merkel era and with France set to hold a Presidential election - the EU leadership is being challenge d by rising internal tensions deriving from the Polish and Hungarian governments obstinate opinions and clashes vis-à-vis the EU . Over the past decade, the gradual political shift in the two Central European countries towards a nationalist/ populist stance has resulted in growing tensions within the Union. Yet, over the past months, those tensions reached a new stage after the Polish C onstitutional T ribunal ruled that some EU laws are incompatible with the Polish constitution and declared the primacy of the national constitution over the EU law on October 7, a decision that hits a cornerstone principle of the EU . Nearly one year after the withdrawal of the UK from the European Union , mounting tensions between Warsaw and Brussels raise a c rucial question : is a “Polexit” possible? The Brexit antecedent can offer a technical answer : yes , it is possible. But a second question follows: is it likely? From an economic point of view, Poland ’s stakes are high , what makes us believe that a Polexit is unlikely . Yet , the domestic political drifts – and its consequences - are very difficult to foresee, leaving all options open. The step-up of the Polish and the Hungarian stances foreshadows hard times ahead for the European Union, that will see its principle s, unity and strength tested. In this paper we present an overview of the most recent conflict line between the Budapest-Warsaw alliance and the EU, as well as an overview on the current eventful politic al scene of Poland, Hungary and the Czech Republic.