Report
Patrick Artus

Central banks assume the capitalists have definitively won the class struggle

Central banks (in OECD countries and globally) have conducted structurally expansionary monetary policies since 2003. This has led to the absence of a fall in debt ratios in OECD countries and to a continued rise in the debt ratio for the world as a whole, whereas debt ratios ought to have fallen after the debt crises. These very high debt ratios are innocuous as long as interest rates are low. But if interest rates were to rise significantly, debt ratios would become unsustainable and a global debt crisis would be triggered. By keeping highly expansionary monetary policies in place, which have enabled debt ratios to continue to rise, central banks have made the bet that nothing is going to happen that would lead to a sharp increase in interest rates. In particular, central banks have made the bet that there will not be a return to rapid wage growth (which would give rise to inflation and drive up interest rates), and therefore that the capitalists have definitively won the class struggle.
Provider
Natixis
Natixis

Based across the world’s leading financial centers, Natixis CIB Research offers an integrated view of the markets. The team provides support to inform Natixis clients’ investment and hedging decisions across all asset classes.

 

Analysts
Patrick Artus

Other Reports from Natixis

ResearchPool Subscriptions

Get the most out of your insights

Get in touch