Change in the sectoral structure of the economy after the coronavirus crisis, structural unemployment and participation rate

It is likely that the coronavirus crisis will permanently change the sectoral structure of the economy, in our opinion at the expense of durable goods (capital goods for companies and households, cars, and therefore intermediate goods), construction, transport and tourism, aeronautics, traditional retail and fossil energies; and probably to the benefit of pharmaceuticals, e-commerce, means of payment, IT, telecoms, clothing, luxury goods, renewable energies, agriculture and agri-food, consumer services, healthcare and logistics. These changes will probably result from lasting changes in the behaviour of households, companies and governments after the crisis. A significant shift in the sectoral structure of the economy may give rise to a mismatch between the skills and jobs that are created in the labour market; leading to the need for many employees to change business sector and retrain. There are therefore grounds to fear that the coronavirus crisis may lead to a rise in structural unemployment or a fall in the participation rate (in the proportion of the working-age population in the labour market).