China: A prolonged severe decline in growth is possible and would be bad news
The Chinese economy's move up the value chain is impressive. But, beyond the present cyclical trends , there is nevertheless a risk of a significant decline in growth in the future, which could result from: The inefficient use of savings; Population ageing. A major growth slowdown in China would be very bad news: It would make the debt level hardly bearable; It could lead to a political crisis.