China can decarbonise the world – but even that won’t fix its overcapacity problem

China is crucial role to the world’s green transition for two contrasting reasons: it is the world’s largest greenhouse gas emitter – over 30 percent of the global total – and it is the world’s largest producer of green technology. China is vital especially for renewable energy products, manufacturing 92 percent of the world’s solar modules and 82 percent of wind turbines as of 2024. The fact that 90 percent of global emissions come from energy consumption underscores the importance of China’s dominant market share.China’s leadership said in 2020 that it would achieve an emissions peak by 2030 and carbon neutrality by 2060. Although these goals have not been formally adopted in law, China has published a series of regulations to pave the way, including the Action Plan for Carbon Emission Peaking Before 2030 (NDRC, 2021) and the Energy Law of China . As a crucial part of its decarbonisation campaign, China aims to raise the share of energy consumption generated from non-fossil fuel sources to 20 percent by 2025, 25 percent by 2030 and 80 percent by 2060. Solar and wind power will meet the bulk of this increased demand. This share stood at 19.8 percent in 2024, only a nudge away from the 2025 target.To meet its goals, China faces a steep curve for growth of non-fossil fuel energy consumption after 2030. With the world’s heavy reliance on China’s green technology exports, the question arises as to whether China can produce enough renewable technology to facilitate not only its own demands, but also the rest of world’s requirements for net-zero emissions. In the following sections, we provide estimates to answer this question.