Report
China in the 2000s and 2010s and India in the 2020s: Two very different growth models
China’s growth in the 2000s and 2010s was due first to very rapid productivity gains and then to an increase in the urban labour force. Productivity gains were due to a major investment effort, including investment in infrastructure (transport, energy, etc.), and a major education effort. India’s growth today is mainly due to an increase in the urban population, a shift from rural population to urban population. Productivity gains remain relatively low, reflecting the lag in investment in infrastructure and in the level of education of the population. China’s growth until the end of the 2010s was therefore mainly due to technological progress; India’s growth today is mainly due to demographics.
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Natixis
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Patrick Artus
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