Natixis - China will become more similar to Japan

Report

Natixis

Patrick Artus

China will become more similar to Japan

As a result of significant population ageing , China will probably become more similar to Japan in several ways: Sluggish domestic demand due to households’ precautionary savings, which means growth will be dependent on exports; Low potential growth; Private sector deleveraging; The need to stimulate domestic demand through public spending, and therefore a persistently highly expansionary fiscal policy, and the replacement of private debt with public debt; A highly expansionary monetary policy due to the increase in public debt.

13/03/2022 1 EN

Provider

Natixis

Based across the world’s leading financial centers, Natixis CIB Research offers an integrated view of the markets. The team provides support to inform Natixis clients’ investment and hedging decisions across all asset classes.

See profile

Analysts

Patrick Artus

Other Reports from Natixis

Christopher HODGE ... (+2)

Christopher HODGE
Jonathan PINGLE

Fine-tuning our Fed Call: No need to skip October

W e have slightly altered our Fed call to include a cut in October of this year, where we previously forecast cuts in only September and December. The reason for adding another cut is threefold. First, the solid domestic demand observed in Q1 because of front running tariffs pull ed forward consumption and investment and weaken ed our outlook for business investment later in the year. Second, we did not see very much passthrough from initial March tariffs into March's low inflation figures, and businesses thus far have attempted to stave off price increases by in large for as long as pos...

12h / 23m 12h / 23m 1 EN

Christopher HODGE ... (+2)

Christopher HODGE
Jonathan PINGLE

Labor market treads water in a choppy sea

The employment report from April showed a labor market that continues to tread water, even if the sea is choppy. The better-than-expected payroll print reflect continued strength in specific sectors (hospitality and healthcare) and boost from transportation and warehousing, likely reflecting increased staffing needs to grapple with looming tariffs. Wednesday’s GDP report showed resilient domestic demand in Q1 and we think that businesses will be inclined to hoard labor and not cut staff until forced to do so – both factors will help near-term labor dynamics. However, the full effects of the...

14h / 59m 14h / 59m 1 EN

Bastien AILLET ... (+3)

Bastien AILLET
Hadrien CAMATTE
Jesus Castillo

Euro area April flash inflation: core inflation unexpectedly rose in April

Euro area headline flash inflation remained stable in April, at 2.2% Y/Y, slightly above market expectations. However, core inflation unexpectedly picked up to 2.7% from 2.4%, led by an increase in the services sector (3.9% from 3.5%, back to its January pace). Inflation for non-energy industrial goods remained unchanged at +0.6% for the third month in a row, while energy prices dropped again to -3.5% from -1.0% due to a sharp decrease in oil prices. Inflation increased markedly in the Netherlands (4.1% from 3.4% ) but the details are not available yet. This is too soon to say whether the in...

17h / 57m 17h / 57m 1 EN

Sign-up for free to access full reports immediately

Email Address*

Choose Password* ( 6 or more characters )

Due to regulatory restrictions regarding the distribution of financial research, this report is restricted to a specific region or investor type. Get access to exclusive reports by answering the questions below.

Select your country*

Get financial insights straight to your inbox

By clicking "register" you accept the Terms and Conditions & Privacy Policy

Already on ResearchPool?

Almost there...

Are you a professional investor?

Select your country

REGISTER

Create a free ResearchPool account to access full reports, get a personalised dashboard and follow providers or companies

In order to access this report please create an account.

LOGIN

China will become more similar to Japan

Fine-tuning our Fed Call: No need to skip October

Labor market treads water in a choppy sea

Euro area April flash inflation: core inflation unexpectedly rose in April

Create a free ResearchPool account to access full reports, get a personalised dashboard and follow providers or companies

Sign-up for free to access full reports immediately

ResearchPool Subscriptions

Get the most out of your insights

Why subscribe?

How to subscribe

ResearchPool Subscriptions

This report is only available to subscribers

Why subscribe?

How to subscribe