Commodities price outlook  2019-2020

This report presents a summary of our outlook on commodity prices for 2019 and 2020. For 2019 we assume a macroeconomic environment in which the USD weak ens and Chinese growth slows down . Our views are as follow: Bullish : Oil: Weak supply growth allows a constructive outlook on oil prices despite weakening consumption. We forecast prices drifting higher in both 2019 and 2020. Gold: A weake r US currency (end of Fed cycle rate hikes while the ECB starts raising rates) and moderately weaker US growth . Silver: A weaker US currency along with the s trong correlati on with gold is to remain in place. Platinum: With the industrial demand for the meta l weakening, the precious metal aspect is taking a larger share. The metal has become much more strongly correlated with movements in the price of gold since the diesel gate . Aluminium: Prices to rise through Q1 while alumina market remains tight before drifting lower , although volatility is expected in response to developments with Alunorte,& Rusal . Copper: Supply-demand fundamentals remain to the upside and with the help of Chinese stimulus and a weaker dollar prices should climb higher Zinc: Low inventories should continue to support prices in H1, after which growth in mine supply takes the market back into a surplus Nickel: Market continues to rupture as grade one nickel demand grows on the back of the EV revolution while grade two nickel heads towards a surplus Bearish: Palladium : Palladium prices are currently above the levels justified by fundamentals . We also expect for a slowdown in global automobile sales. Iron Ore: Benchmark 62% price to fall as Chinese steel demand begins to wane, but spreads between high and low grade ore to hold N eutral: Natural gas: Although production will continue to expand, we expect disposition to continue to rise in lockstep as power burn increases and LNG terminals are brought into operation, leaving the market relatively balanced.