Report
Patrick Artus

Contrary to a widely held notion, monetary policy is as effective against inflation caused by a positive demand shock as against inflation caused by a negative supply shock

It is too often claimed that a restrictive monetary policy: Would be effective against inflation resulting from a positive demand shock (rapid credit growth, fiscal deficits, etc. ); But would be ineffective against inflation resulting from a negative supply shock (rising commodity prices, increasing corporate profit margins, etc.). In reality, there is no difference between the two types of inflation in terms of the effectiveness of a restrictive monetary policy: reducing demand for goods and services eliminates inflation whatever its source. The difference is in the acceptability of a restrictive monetary policy, not its effectiveness. In the case of inflation caused by a positive demand shock, the correction of the shock will eliminate the additional demand, but will not depress the economy relative to normal. In the case of inflation caused by a negative supply shock, the correction of the shock will further depress an economy that is already depressed by the negative supply shock.
Provider
Natixis
Natixis

Based across the world’s leading financial centers, Natixis CIB Research offers an integrated view of the markets. The team provides support to inform Natixis clients’ investment and hedging decisions across all asset classes.

 

Analysts
Patrick Artus

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Benoit GERARD
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