Correlation or lack of correlation between the long-term interest rate and the equity risk premium
In the United States, the fall in long-term interest rates has led to a fall in the equity risk premium, which is normal given investors’ switch from bonds to equities. But in the euro zone, the equity risk premium has remained very high despite the fall in long-term interest rates. Why? Because: Euro-zone households hardly buy equities; Given the constraints they are subject to, euro-zone investors are unable to switch from bonds to equities; Non-residents have far more confidence in the US economy than in the euro-zone economy; they are buyers of US equities and sellers of European equities; Because US companies are issuing bonds to buy back their shares, which euro-zone companies are not doing .