Report
Patrick Artus

Could a euro-zone crisis, like the one in 2010-2013 after the subprime crisis, appear after the COVID crisis?

The subprime crisis in 2008-2009 was worsened and prolonged in Europe by the euro-zone crisis from 2010 to 2013. Could a similar euro-zone crisis appear after the COVID crisis? We have to start with the causes of the euro-zone crisis: At the outset, the loss of confidence in the core euro-zone countries (particularly Germany and the Netherlands) in the (fiscal and external) solvency of the peripheral euro-zone countries, which caused a halt to capital mobility between euro-zone countries: the countries with savings no longer lent them to the others, but to the rest of the world outside the euro zone, mainly to the United States; The peripheral countries then had to eliminate their external deficit , which no longer could be financed, leading to a switch to restrictive policies, especially fiscal policies and also wage policies, and a fall in domestic demand caused by the rise in interest rates. Such a crisis now no longer seems possible: The ECB ensures all countries’ fiscal solvency by buying their government bonds: there is no longer any loss of confidence in the peripheral euro-zone countries’ solvency, which avoids a premature switch to a more restrictive fiscal policy; The European recovery plan will absorb a significant part of the euro zone's excess savings and reinvest them in Europe. First, this will strengthen investment and prevent a loss of the savings now being lent to the rest of the world; second, this will generate capital flows from countries with excess savings to others.
Provider
Natixis
Natixis

Based across the world’s leading financial centers, Natixis CIB Research offers an integrated view of the markets. The team provides support to inform Natixis clients’ investment and hedging decisions across all asset classes.

 

Analysts
Patrick Artus

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