Could a euro-zone crisis, like the one in 2010-2013 after the subprime crisis, appear after the COVID crisis?
The subprime crisis in 2008-2009 was worsened and prolonged in Europe by the euro-zone crisis from 2010 to 2013. Could a similar euro-zone crisis appear after the COVID crisis? We have to start with the causes of the euro-zone crisis: At the outset, the loss of confidence in the core euro-zone countries (particularly Germany and the Netherlands) in the (fiscal and external) solvency of the peripheral euro-zone countries, which caused a halt to capital mobility between euro-zone countries: the countries with savings no longer lent them to the others, but to the rest of the world outside the euro zone, mainly to the United States; The peripheral countries then had to eliminate their external deficit , which no longer could be financed, leading to a switch to restrictive policies, especially fiscal policies and also wage policies, and a fall in domestic demand caused by the rise in interest rates. Such a crisis now no longer seems possible: The ECB ensures all countries’ fiscal solvency by buying their government bonds: there is no longer any loss of confidence in the peripheral euro-zone countries’ solvency, which avoids a premature switch to a more restrictive fiscal policy; The European recovery plan will absorb a significant part of the euro zone's excess savings and reinvest them in Europe. First, this will strengthen investment and prevent a loss of the savings now being lent to the rest of the world; second, this will generate capital flows from countries with excess savings to others.