Could an Italian public debt restructuring be avoided?
The advantage of the very low interest rates implemented by the ECB is that they ensure the solvency of all borrowers, including those that are highly indebted. This holds for Italy: its fiscal solvency is ensured by the very low interest rates despite its zero potential growth. But could interest rates remain so low forever? That is unlikely given the growing drawbacks of low interest rates: real estate bubble, risk of life insurance crisis, weakening of banks, capital outflows, etc. Once the ECB decides to hike its interest rates, Italy will very rapidly lose its fiscal solvency, and the risk is then that the risk premia on Italian debt will also rise. The only remaining option will then be to restructure its public debt.