Report
Patrick Artus

Could long-term interest rates rise significantly in the euro zone if monetary policy remains highly expansionary?

We rule out an inflationary shock that leads the ECB to hike its interest rates or reduce the size of its balance sheet. If euro short-term interest rates remain very low, could long-term interest rates rise? There would have to be a self-fulfilling crisis: the expectation of higher interest rates would drive investors out of bonds; when we look at current resident and non-resident flows, we see significant bond purchases; Or investors would have to rotate significantly from bonds into equities under the effect of a newfound and justified appeal of European equities. This rotation may be beginning to take place.
Provider
Natixis
Natixis

Based across the world’s leading financial centers, Natixis CIB Research offers an integrated view of the markets. The team provides support to inform Natixis clients’ investment and hedging decisions across all asset classes.

 

Analysts
Patrick Artus

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