Could potential growth be 3% per year in the United States?

After the very high growth figure for the second quarter of 2018 in the United States, some analysts have suggested that US growth could remain close to 3% indefinitely, or in other words that this is the level of US potential growth. We believe this scenario is highly unlikely, as it implies: Either a sharp acceleration in productivity gains (around 2% per year), at a time when the economy continues to skew towards low-productivity domestic services, the skill level of the labour force and the quality of the education system are low, and high-skilled immigration is declin ing ; Or a sharp increase in the participation rate, when it has been stable on average since 2014, the employability of middle-aged Americans has fallen considerably and wages have hardly accelerated at all. We believe that US potential growth is closer to 2% per year, and that growth is soon going to return to this level.