Report
Patrick Artus

Could the decline in potential growth in OECD countries be a result of the stagnation of human capital?

It is well known that labour productivity and total factor productivity - and therefore potential growth - in OECD countries have slowed since the 1990s and especially since 2000. This is a particularly shocking development both socially and economically since companies’ profitability has increased, giving them greater resources to invest, capital intensity has increased, and companies’ innovation and modernisation of capital has increased. We seek to determine whether the decline in productivity gains may be linked to the end of growth in human capital around 2009, due to the end of the increase in per capita spending on education, the end of the improvement in the level of education that had increased significantly since the 1970s, and the fact that the skill level has remained quite low. If this theory is correct, governments would have to finance a new jump in spending on education and, as a result, in the level of human capital for long-term growth in the OECD to pick up.
Provider
Natixis
Natixis

Based across the world’s leading financial centers, Natixis CIB Research offers an integrated view of the markets. The team provides support to inform Natixis clients’ investment and hedging decisions across all asset classes.

 

Analysts
Patrick Artus

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